Thursday, January 31, 2013

Outstanding 2012 EEM Weekly Covered Call Performance

One more post about 2012 performance of the  Index Covered Call Performance approach.
Starting Feb. 27, of 2012 (after the market was up substantially at the beginning of 2012), CCI bought some shares of EEM (an ETF for the emerging market) and subsequently sold calls against the position every week. Yes, that's  right....every week.   This process was stopped on  Nov. 23, 2012. 

  • An investor buying and holding EEM for the same period would have lost 3.4%.
  • Selling weekly covered calls on the same position resulted in a 7.3% gain.
    • Interestingly this approach lost 11.8% in capital gains but made 19.1% in option premium. This is consistent with the theoretical view of covered calls which sacrifices capital gains in exchange for receiving option premiums.  In this case, it seems like the high frequency of weekly calls accentuates this outcome.
As they say....past results are no guarantee of future result...but the idea of collecting almost .5%/week in option premium from selling weekly calls is still appealing to CCI.  CCI plans to continue, expand, and refine this approach in 2013.

More details about the mechanics of this approach can be found at the ICC tab on this blog, however in summary the approach was very simply.
  • First Monday morning - buy EEM and Sell covered calls with a delta around 35
  • Next Monday 
    • if the shares were assigned -  repeat a buy and write as done originally
    • if the options expired worthless - resell covered calls for the next week with a delta of 35
  • Rinse and Repeat

Monday, January 28, 2013

Re-establish Weekly EEM Covered Call Position

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.


UNDERLYING ETF: EEM    
DESCRIPTION: iShares Emerging Market Shares  

TRANSACTION TYPE: Buy write. 
EEM position got called away a week ago for a cumulative modest .4% gain in two weeks.  Re-established a weekly covered call in EEM today.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Mon. 1/28/13

Action: Buy - EEM 
 Price: $43.84
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb 1, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $44.00
Price: $.19
 
Net Cost: $43.66 after commissions

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Not a good week for rational market behavior

A few interesting things in the markets later this week
  • "Big time investors" Ackman and Ichan got in a “cat fight” on CNBC Friday afternoon. Some of it about Herbalife (HLF), and some of it about some ten year old deals which with they were both involved. However, most of it was about ego, perceptions, and emotion. While it can be entertaining to watch, what struck me was that these guys represent  the “smart money” that allegedly reacts rationally and unemotionally to market events to create an efficient rational market. To me the dialog is a great exhibit of one of the ways markets and their participants are not rationale.
  • Netflix (NFLX) reported a profit of $.13/share instead of an expected loss of $.13/share. That drove 2013 earnings estimates for the company for 2013 to somewhere around $1.00. The markets reaction to that was for Netflix stock to go up 70% in 2 days to $168. I'll let the reader figure out the p/e of a $168 stock with earnings of $1. (hint: 168/1 ..lol). Of course, this likely has nothing to do with valuations and rationale. Probably more to do with a huge amount of shorts being “squeezed”.
  • Apple (aapl) exceeded published earnings expectations. The market  responded by driving the stock price down some $50 (10%) in a day. The stock is trading below $450, down over $250 (35%) from its high a few months ago. Of course Apple will probably earn something like $45 in 2013. Once again I'll let the reader figure the p/e ( hint $450/45 =10)

This type of data points sure make me "glad"  that the most  investments are based on rationale, efficient markets and participants.

CCI will end this post here, but is pondering ways to capitalize on the Apple situation.  I'd be looking for the stock to stabilize and be range bound for awhile at some level just above here.  I'm considering buying the Jan 14 or Jan 15 $300 call. Then start to roll covered calls against this position.  For better/worse, this would create some leverage and hedging for the trade. This approach would be similar to the trades CCI did against CSCO last year as described here.  Stay tuned.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Rolling QQQ Options Out Two Weeks

The Index Covered Call (aka: ICC) trading plan is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.



UNDERLYING ETF: QQQ 
DESCRIPTION: Power Shares NASDAQ 100

TRANSACTION TYPE: Roll
With Apple (AAPL) plunging today that brought down NASDApple QQQs as well.  CCI took advantage of this pull back to harvest a little option premium. an
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Thur. 1/24/13

Action: Buy to close
Exp. Date: Jan. 25, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $66.00
Price: $.76
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb.8, 2013 (weekly, out 2 weeks)
Strike: $66
Price: $1.13
 
Net Credit/Contract after commissions: $.32

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Is "Do-It-Yourself" Covered Calls Better Than a Similar ETF?

 Yesterday CCI posted results for a covered call strategy in SPY.   As a follow-on to that information,  CCI added the  performance of the Powershares S&P500 Buy Write ETF (PBP) to the analysis. 

A full description of this fund can be found here but its summary states "The Fund generally will invest at least 90% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Index, including at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks of the 500 companies included in the S&P 500® Index and will write (sell) call options thereon."

When looking at the same period of Feb 24, 2012 through Dec, 31 2012 PBP appears to have lost 3.4% in value while generating distributions of 4.2% for a .8% gain.  The table below compares results to the S&P500 and CCI covered call trading of SPY Covered Calls.


Description                                SPY      SPY- CC         PBP                    

TOTAL RETURN                     6.4%        7.7%         0.8%                      
Monthly Std. Dev.                     2.9%         2.0%            1.9%                     
 
I'm not entirely sure what explains these significantly different results, and care should be taken not to interpolate ten months results into the future. However, it could be worth a little time to think about what could cause these differences in performance.  Perhaps this is just CCI's brilliance (LOL).  More seriously, this different result in what on the surface sounds like similar conceptual approaches could illustrate the
  •  importance of call strike selection  and timing
  • importance of  active/passive management of  a covered call position,
  •  the impact of fees on an investment,
  •  difference in timings of distributions
  • etc
No matter the reason, this certainly seems like an example of a the benefits that can be gained by an investor taking the time to "do it themselves".

Monday, January 21, 2013

CCI's SPY/IWM Covered Calls Outperform Index in 2012!

The markets being closed today, provided a good opportunity to pull together performance for the Index Covered Call Portfolio. (ICC).   A summary of the activities performed to achieving these results is included at the bottom of this post and the conceptual trading plan for this portfolio is shown here

As shown below from initiation of the approach on Feb. 24, 2013 to Dec. 31, 2013 the covered call portfolio outperformed the underlying index!  At the same time the results are also less volatile.  Better results with less volatility means a better risk-adjusted rate of return.
Description                                SPY      SPY- CC                           IWM      IWM-CC
Cap Gain Return                       4.1%         4.1%                                1.9%          1.9%
Dividend Return                        2.3%         2.3%                                2.0%          2.0%
Option Return                              0%         1.3%                                  0%           2.4%
TOTAL RETURN                     6.4%        7.7%                                3.9%          6.4%


Monthly Std. Dev.                     2.9%         2.0%                                3.6%           1.9%
Worst Month                           -6.0%         -4.1%                              -6.6%         -2.1%  

Please note that all results are unaudited. Additionally, past performance is no guarantee of future results. That is certainly true for these results as different returns and volatility in the underlying indexes will generate different results. However, the case study does seem to support most of the premises for using covered calls such as
  • An investor using covered calls must remember that writing the covered call is just the first step and would be well served to have a plan/system to manage those calls. This portfolio suggests one approach that seemed to work in this case.
  • Performance for covered calls as compared to just holding the underlying index will likely be
    • better in flat and down markets
    • worse in up markets
  • Covered calls do dampen volatility. To the degree that is positive characteristic of a lower risk portfolio this strategy can be beneficial to an overall portfolio.


   * * * * * * *     Summary of Approach  * * * * * * *

The stock market had moved up handsomely in the first months of 2012. At that time, I decided to to select and follow an approach to managing covered calls. This article describes the actual results of writing monthly covered calls against the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) for the last ten months of 2012. The following describes the process used and corresponding results.

For SPY;
  • On February 24, 2012 the SPY was purchased at $136.75.
  • At the same time, a call expiring the next month (March) with a strike of $139 was sold against the position. The strike price was chosen because it has a delta value of around 33. This article will not attempt to describe option pricing theory and the the greeks. Suffice it to say this delta level was chose because it seemed to strike a good balance between
    • the probability of expiring above that price (about 33%) and having to deal with the potential calling away of the stock vs.
      - obtaining a material premium for the sale of the call
  • The option was held until
    • That option's delta went below 10 or over 90 or
    • 3 days prior to expiration.
  • When those conditions were met, the option was rolled to
    • the next expiration date with greater than 15 days until expiration. (usually the next month)
    • with a delta once again near 33.
  • Using these guidelines the process was redone every month. It triggered twelve rolls of the option over the next ten months. Not surprisingly,
    • four of those option rolls were done at a loss because the stock had moved well passed the strike price of the option
    • and eight were done for modest gains.
         That ratio of 4 of 12 times is what would have been expected with option having a delta of 33%

         The maximum monthly draw down of the covered call portfolio was 4.1% compared to 6.0% for       just holding the ETF. Lastly, while the data covers only 3 ½ quarters the covered call approach never  had a loosing quarter while holding the S&P had two loosing quarters.

For IWM;
  • On February 24, 2012 the IWM was purchased at $82.74. The March $85 call was sold at the same time. For the rest of the year the same process described above of rolling the option when the delta on that option got to 10 or 90 was followed.
  • This situation also triggered twelve rolls of the option over the next ten months. Those twelve option rolls generated a net credit of $201.45 or 2.43%.
  • This return was in addition to the 1.91% capital appreciation of the etf and 2.04% in dividends paid. Overall that means the returns for
    • Buy and Hold IWM was 3.95%
    • Buy and Hold with covered calls was 6.38%.
            In this case the covered calls turned a very modest return into something much better.
  • Additionally, just as shown above, the covered call portfolio was also less volatile
    • The monthly standard deviation of covered calls was just 1.7% vs 3.3 % if just holding the ETF. Almost half the volatility.
    • The maximum monthly draw down of the covered call portfolio was just 2.1% vs 6.6% for simply holding the ETF.



Friday, January 18, 2013

Rolled SPY Option Out and Up

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.

UNDERLYING ETF:  SPY   
DESCRIPTION: SPDRs S&P500

TRANSACTION TYPE: Roll the January $147 call to the February $149
TRANSACTION RATIONALE:  Approaching option expiration the option position was rolled out and up.  The January option made a very small, immaterial addition to profits while providing a hedge if the market had gone down instead of up. 

TRANSACTION DATE: Fri  Jan 18, 2013

Action: Buy to Close
Exp. Date Jan 19,2013
Strike: $147
Price: $.94
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb. 16, 2013
Strike: $149
Price: $1.32
 
Net Credit: $.31/contract after commissions

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Will there be a better level to buy in 2013?

The market was up again today, volatility very low, and greed seems to be trumping fear.


CCI stumbled across the data below.  CCI did not audit this info, but thanks to Avondale for their hard work.
                                                                      * * *

"Scanning data of the S&P 500 since 1957 produced only three other years that the index started the year positive and never closed negative on a YTD basis."  .........."Those years: 1958, 1964, 1976 and 2012.  The returns in these years were 43%, 16%, 23% and 16% respectively.   The full article is at

http://www.avondaleam.com/2013/01/years-that-s-500-never-went-negative.html


                                                                     * * *

The S&P (SPY) is now up about  4% ytd, and has never been below the Jan 1 opening.
Past performance is certainly not a guarantee of future performance, and "this time could be different", but....seems like the probability of the S&P having  back to back years where there is never a better buying point than Jan 1 is small.  Of course, interest rates have never been at "zero" for back to back years to before either.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Rolled short put in gold miners

As last discussed here  CCI continues to get portfolio exposure to gold via holding options in the gold etf (GLD) and funding that via selling puts in the gold miners etf (GDX).

Gold has trade down beginning of the year.  With a small bounce back this week, CCI rolled the short put position in GDX from the Jan. $47 strike to the Feb $44 strike. The closure of the Jan $47 put essentially closed the January cycle for this approach at a 3.9% loss.  On a relative basis that was better than 6% loss for the gold etf over the same period.  That of course is one of the goals of this approach. "Lose less if gold does not spike"

At the same time, the proceeds of the GDX Feb $44 puts were used to obtain a GLD $162 Feb. Call

Specific holdings as of now are:

  • Short 3 March $45 GDX puts for every 1 long March $170 call
  • Short 3 Feb $44 GDX puts for every 1 long Feb $162 call
  • Long Jan $175 call which is assumed will expire worthless on Friday.
Both GDX and GLD drifted up after the transaction and are closed the day trading at $45.59 and $162.59 respectively. 

Re-established EEM weekly call

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.

UNDERLYING ETF: EEM    
DESCRIPTION: iShares Emerging Market Shares  

TRANSACTION TYPE: Sell Call to Open. 
The weekly call last week expired.  Replaced that covered call position today.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Tues. 1/15/13

Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Jan. 19, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $44.50
Price: $.18
 
Net Cost: $.153 after commissions

Monday, January 14, 2013

Selling Calls Against HPQ Position

Long time readers will recall that CCI's portfolio  is "blessed" with a long position in HPQ.

hpq traded up the past few days allegedly on break up rumors.  Further, HPQ traded up even more today in sympathy of rumors/stories about dell potentially having some PE firms looking to buy it out.   CCI figured all this noise presented as good as opportunity as any to try to exit and/or squeeze some money back from this position.  Hence CCI sold two lots of Feb $17 calls for a credit of $.63 today.   If the stock holds on to this gain it will be called away at an effective price of $17.63, and it will likely be time to move on.  Conversely if the stock pulls back from its current spike we should have the opportunity to harvest all or some of the $.63 (or 3.7%) premium collected.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Roll IWM Covered Calls Out and Up

The Index Covered Call (aka: ICC) trading plan is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.



UNDERLYING ETF:  IWM   
DESCRIPTION: iShares Russell 2000

TRANSACTION TYPE: Roll
The small cap index continues to move higherWith one week to go until expiration it was time to take the loss in the covered call contract, preserve some of the gain in the etf and  and roll out to another strike.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Fri  1/11/13

Action: Buy to close
Exp. Date: Jan. 19, 2013
Strike: $84
Price: $3.08
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb. 16, 2013
Strike: $88
Price: $1.19
 
Net Cost/Contract after commissions: $1.98


Thursday, January 10, 2013

Rolling QQQ Covered Calls

The Index Covered Call (aka: ICC) trading plan is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.



UNDERLYING ETF: QQQ 
DESCRIPTION: Power Shares NASDAQ 100

TRANSACTION TYPE: Roll
QQQs have moved markedly higher since the last covered call position was taken over the holidays.  With one day to go until expiration it was time to take the loss in the covered call contract, preserve some of the gain in the etf and  and roll out to another strike.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Thur. 1/10/13

Action: Buy to close
Exp. Date: Jan. 11, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $65.00
Price: $2.14
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Jan. 25, 2013 (weekly, out 2 weeks)
Strike: $66
Price: $1.52
 
Net Cost/Contract after commissions: $.675

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

2012 Results for "GRR"- Double the gold market ...again

As discussed in the past, CCI continues to get the gold allocation of an overall portfolio from owning calls in the gold etf (gld) that are funded but the sale of puts in the gold miners ETF (gdx). The rationale for this strategy was originally discussed here, and has been followed under the gold risk reversal (grr) tab in this blog.  The primary objective of this approach is to profit from any relatively rapid rises in the price of gold due to some macro level event, while trying to minimize the capital required and risk of having this exposure.

Year end seems like an appropriate time to summarize performance of this approach. Long time readers will recall that this approach was first started on Feb 4 of 2011. For the 11 months of that year a handful of these type of trades were successfully made. The performance for 2/4/11 to 12/31/11 was

  • CCI gold risk reversal approach (GRR) – 36.2%
  • Buy and Hold of Gold over the same time period – 15.5%
  • Buy and Trade Gold with the same timing as GRR – 25.7%

CCI took a small portion of the gains off the table at the end of last year, and executed the same process more consistently in 2012. The performance for 2012

  • CCI gold risk reversal approach (GRR) – 11.0%
  • Buy and Hold of Gold over the same time period – 6.6%

Yes, that is two years in a row of approximately doubling the returns on gold! Further, this return is calculated assuming the puts in gdx are cash secured. The returns on the just the capital required to hold the puts would be 3 to 4 times greater! Of course loses would also be magnified in a similar manner if calculated in this manner.

Encouraged by these results and feeling gold might be poised for another spike in price as Washington DC entered the post-election/cliff/ceiling period,  CCI doubled the portfolio's allocation to gold(discussed here). The timing of this decision was not too good...yet. Performance for 11/7/12 to 12/31/12
  • CCI gold risk reversal approach (GRR) – (-2.5%)
  • Buy and Hold of Gold over the same time period – (-2.4%)

Obviously past results are not a indication of future results. Gold has been down in the first few trading days of 2013. That means very early results  for 2013will be negative on this approach. It also means the time to adjust these positions might be approaching. Specific holdings as of now are:

  • Short 3 March $45 GDX puts for every 1 long March $170 call
  • Short 3 January $47 GDX puts for every 1 long January $175 call



FYI, 1/9 closing prices was $44.35 for GDX and $160.50 for GLD

Monday, January 7, 2013

Re-starting weekly covered calls against EEM

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.


UNDERLYING ETF: EEM    
DESCRIPTION: iShares Emerging Market Shares  

TRANSACTION TYPE: Buy write. 
After a break for the holidays, CCI is re-initiating the process of selling weekly calls against a position in EEM.  As discussed in the trading plan, the intent is to simply hold the position through the expiration/assignment that will occur on Friday and then replace the position next Monday.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Mon. 1/7/13

Action: Buy - EEM 
 Price: $44.63
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Jan. 11, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $45.00
Price: $.15
 
Net Cost: $44.49 after commissions

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Bill Gross and CCI - Agree then Disagree

The holidays provided CCI a chance to catch up in some general reading of the financial press. One item readers might find worthy of reading in its entirety is Bill Gross (of Pimco) December Investment Insight letter. It can be found here

Overall the article is consistent with his and Pimco's “new normal” view of the world. More specifically, the article provides an excellent description of why deleveraging, globalization, technology, and demographics are macro level forces which could likely mean global GDP may only be 2% for quite awhile. Consequently he concludes that “Investors should expect future annualized bond returns of 3–4% at best and equity returns only a few percentage points higher. “ I agree with Mr. Gross's assessment of the future. If that forecast is accurate, it has dire consequences for investors, as it makes it increasingly unlikely that an individual investor (or even professional investors like pension funds) will ever be able to accumulate enough assets to fund a retirement.

The article then briefly discusses what an investor might do to react to this environment. Specifically, it lists some picks and pans for various asset classes. Generally speaking, this seem like good, traditional, investment advice. However, after very nicely articulating the rationale for a new investment landscape, it is disappointing that these actionable ideas are based only in the traditional components of asset allocation. Perhaps that is not too surprising since Mr. Gross and Pimco are primarily in the business of traditional portfolio management. However, it seems logical that if there is a new macro level environment reality, that investors should think about new ways to generate returns.

Some vehicles and techniques that might be considered by investors preparing for a new normal include:
  • Options – As Warren Buffet has said, speculating in derivatives can be “financial weapons of mass destruction”. Conversely, when used as hedges, options can provide portfolio protection against draw downs and generate income. This is especially true when selling options as opposed to buying them. The volume of options traded in the markets has steadily increased over the years. Someone is increasingly using this vehicle to reconfigure their portfolios. An individual investor not using options might be trying to compete without using all the tools available to them. Hence, individual investors should be determining how they want to utilize options in this new environment.
  • Margin/Leverage - Margin and leverage is a double edged sword that can help or hurt returns.
    Leverage can achieved be achieved via options strategies. Also, with low borrowing costs, perhaps now is one of the best times in history to consider carefully using small amounts of margin as a way to strive to increase return without increasing costs too much. Further with seemingly easier access to portfolio margin accounts an individual investor may have new opportunities to utilize these capabilities.
  • Market Neutral/Long-Short – Rule number one for many investors is don't lose money. This rule has always made sense because big draw downs in portfolios require even a bigger upside moves to get back to even. If overall returns from traditional portfolios are potentially muted in the future, it will even be harder to recover from big losses. That makes rule number one even more important, and that means investors may be well served to place more emphasis on striving to achieve more stable absolute returns. A portfolio configured to try to achieve more stable absolute returns will likely need to deploy some market neutral, long/short oriented strategies in their portfolio,

These techniques, like any other, are not guaranteed to produce the results an investor desires. They also bring with them their own set of risks. Investors deploying these techniques for the first time will have to take the time to learn these areas and find ways to mange the risks they bring. However, the risks of these approaches need to be compared to the risk of achieving traditional investment returns in the forecast of the future that Mr. Grosses suggests. If that forecast is accurate, there is not just a risk, but almost a guarantee, that just deploying traditional portfolio management techniques will not provide sufficient returns to meet long term goals. Hence it seems very risky to be 100% committed to only traditional portfolio theory. If there is a reasonable chance that Mr Gross's forecast is correct then it seem like some reasonable portion of a portfolio should be allocated to techniques that is designed to succeed in that type of environment. Perhaps now is the time individual investors need to learn how to invest in a new way for a new normal. CCI plans to put more focus on these techniques in 2013.