Thursday, January 17, 2013

Will there be a better level to buy in 2013?

The market was up again today, volatility very low, and greed seems to be trumping fear.

CCI stumbled across the data below.  CCI did not audit this info, but thanks to Avondale for their hard work.
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"Scanning data of the S&P 500 since 1957 produced only three other years that the index started the year positive and never closed negative on a YTD basis."  .........."Those years: 1958, 1964, 1976 and 2012.  The returns in these years were 43%, 16%, 23% and 16% respectively.   The full article is at

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The S&P (SPY) is now up about  4% ytd, and has never been below the Jan 1 opening.
Past performance is certainly not a guarantee of future performance, and "this time could be different", but....seems like the probability of the S&P having  back to back years where there is never a better buying point than Jan 1 is small.  Of course, interest rates have never been at "zero" for back to back years to before either.

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