Monday, February 11, 2013

Sold Weekly EEM Calls

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.


UNDERLYING ETF: EEM    
DESCRIPTION: iShares Emerging Market Shares  

TRANSACTION TYPE: Sell Call to Open. 
The weekly call last week expired generating a .46% gain for the week. 
With EEM trading around $43.70 this morning, replaced that covered call position.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Tues. 2/11/13

Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb. 16, 2013 (one week out,happens to be the monthly option)
Strike: $44.00
Price: $.17
 
Net Credit/contract: $.156 (.35%) after commissions

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Yet Another Forecast For Lower Returns For The Next Decade

This  Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 by London Business School authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton came to my attention this week.  It can be found here.  It is not a "quick read", but does contain lots of information that can be good food for thought. 

One of its conclusions is that
  • Estimated annualized real returns for the next 20-30 years (i.e. the most important time frame for most of us).
    • global equities 3-4%
    • bonds 1%
  • Of course most financial services firms will quote, and generate investment plans around, something like the historical real returns since 1950
    • global equities  6.8%
    • bonds 3.7%
It seems there are more and more forecast coming out like this all the time. Perhaps these forecasters (and CCI) are guilty of just projecting recent results into the future.

Or.....perhaps the demographics, debt levels, artificially low interest rates, technological innovation,etc is driving a meaningful probability of this type of forecast for the next 20 years coming to fruition.  If there is some meaningful probability of this happening, CCI continues to believe that a meaningful portion of a portfolio needs to be geared towards out-performing in this type of environment even at the risk of missing out on upside performance if the market does meet or exceed the results since 1950.  This blog will continue to try to focus discussion on those type of investing ideas.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Rolled QQQ Covered Calls

The Index Covered Call (aka: ICC) trading plan is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.


UNDERLYING ETF: QQQ 
DESCRIPTION: Power Shares NASDAQ 100 

TRANSACTION TYPE: Roll
DESCRIPTION: Today's market pull back (QQQ under $67) provided the opportunity to roll the covered call position. This covered call had been a loser, but on the roll-out the Feb. 8 calls were able to be closed for a small profit (Sold at $1.13 bought back at $1.00)

TRANSACTION DATE: Thur. 2/7/13 
Action: Buy to Close 
Exp. Date: Feb. 8, 2013 (weekly) 
Strike: $66.00 
Price: $1.00 
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb. 22, 2013 (weekly, out 2 weeks) 
Strike: $66  
Price: $1.35
 
Net Credit: $.30 after commissions

Monday, February 4, 2013

Re-establish Weekly EEM Covered Call Position

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.



UNDERLYING ETF: EEM    
DESCRIPTION: iShares Emerging Market Shares  

TRANSACTION TYPE: Buy write. 
EEM position got called away on Friday for a one week gain of .78%. 
 Re-established a weekly covered call in EEM today.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Mon. 2/4/13

Action: Buy - EEM 
 Price: $43.85
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb 8, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $44.00
Price: $.21
 
Net Cost: $43.65 after commissions

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Outstanding 2012 EEM Weekly Covered Call Performance

One more post about 2012 performance of the  Index Covered Call Performance approach.
Starting Feb. 27, of 2012 (after the market was up substantially at the beginning of 2012), CCI bought some shares of EEM (an ETF for the emerging market) and subsequently sold calls against the position every week. Yes, that's  right....every week.   This process was stopped on  Nov. 23, 2012. 

  • An investor buying and holding EEM for the same period would have lost 3.4%.
  • Selling weekly covered calls on the same position resulted in a 7.3% gain.
    • Interestingly this approach lost 11.8% in capital gains but made 19.1% in option premium. This is consistent with the theoretical view of covered calls which sacrifices capital gains in exchange for receiving option premiums.  In this case, it seems like the high frequency of weekly calls accentuates this outcome.
As they say....past results are no guarantee of future result...but the idea of collecting almost .5%/week in option premium from selling weekly calls is still appealing to CCI.  CCI plans to continue, expand, and refine this approach in 2013.

More details about the mechanics of this approach can be found at the ICC tab on this blog, however in summary the approach was very simply.
  • First Monday morning - buy EEM and Sell covered calls with a delta around 35
  • Next Monday 
    • if the shares were assigned -  repeat a buy and write as done originally
    • if the options expired worthless - resell covered calls for the next week with a delta of 35
  • Rinse and Repeat

Monday, January 28, 2013

Re-establish Weekly EEM Covered Call Position

The Index Covered Call Trading Plan  (aka: ICC) is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.


UNDERLYING ETF: EEM    
DESCRIPTION: iShares Emerging Market Shares  

TRANSACTION TYPE: Buy write. 
EEM position got called away a week ago for a cumulative modest .4% gain in two weeks.  Re-established a weekly covered call in EEM today.
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Mon. 1/28/13

Action: Buy - EEM 
 Price: $43.84
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb 1, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $44.00
Price: $.19
 
Net Cost: $43.66 after commissions

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Not a good week for rational market behavior

A few interesting things in the markets later this week
  • "Big time investors" Ackman and Ichan got in a “cat fight” on CNBC Friday afternoon. Some of it about Herbalife (HLF), and some of it about some ten year old deals which with they were both involved. However, most of it was about ego, perceptions, and emotion. While it can be entertaining to watch, what struck me was that these guys represent  the “smart money” that allegedly reacts rationally and unemotionally to market events to create an efficient rational market. To me the dialog is a great exhibit of one of the ways markets and their participants are not rationale.
  • Netflix (NFLX) reported a profit of $.13/share instead of an expected loss of $.13/share. That drove 2013 earnings estimates for the company for 2013 to somewhere around $1.00. The markets reaction to that was for Netflix stock to go up 70% in 2 days to $168. I'll let the reader figure out the p/e of a $168 stock with earnings of $1. (hint: 168/1 ..lol). Of course, this likely has nothing to do with valuations and rationale. Probably more to do with a huge amount of shorts being “squeezed”.
  • Apple (aapl) exceeded published earnings expectations. The market  responded by driving the stock price down some $50 (10%) in a day. The stock is trading below $450, down over $250 (35%) from its high a few months ago. Of course Apple will probably earn something like $45 in 2013. Once again I'll let the reader figure the p/e ( hint $450/45 =10)

This type of data points sure make me "glad"  that the most  investments are based on rationale, efficient markets and participants.

CCI will end this post here, but is pondering ways to capitalize on the Apple situation.  I'd be looking for the stock to stabilize and be range bound for awhile at some level just above here.  I'm considering buying the Jan 14 or Jan 15 $300 call. Then start to roll covered calls against this position.  For better/worse, this would create some leverage and hedging for the trade. This approach would be similar to the trades CCI did against CSCO last year as described here.  Stay tuned.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Rolling QQQ Options Out Two Weeks

The Index Covered Call (aka: ICC) trading plan is CCI's approach for managing a position of index ETFs and related covered calls.  The most recent trade against this plan is described below.  A reader can find details about the rational and management of the trades at the ICC trading plan tab on CCI's home page.



UNDERLYING ETF: QQQ 
DESCRIPTION: Power Shares NASDAQ 100

TRANSACTION TYPE: Roll
With Apple (AAPL) plunging today that brought down NASDApple QQQs as well.  CCI took advantage of this pull back to harvest a little option premium. an
 
TRANSACTION DATE: Thur. 1/24/13

Action: Buy to close
Exp. Date: Jan. 25, 2013 (weekly)
Strike: $66.00
Price: $.76
 
Action: Sell to Open
Exp. Date: Feb.8, 2013 (weekly, out 2 weeks)
Strike: $66
Price: $1.13
 
Net Credit/Contract after commissions: $.32

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Is "Do-It-Yourself" Covered Calls Better Than a Similar ETF?

 Yesterday CCI posted results for a covered call strategy in SPY.   As a follow-on to that information,  CCI added the  performance of the Powershares S&P500 Buy Write ETF (PBP) to the analysis. 

A full description of this fund can be found here but its summary states "The Fund generally will invest at least 90% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Index, including at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks of the 500 companies included in the S&P 500® Index and will write (sell) call options thereon."

When looking at the same period of Feb 24, 2012 through Dec, 31 2012 PBP appears to have lost 3.4% in value while generating distributions of 4.2% for a .8% gain.  The table below compares results to the S&P500 and CCI covered call trading of SPY Covered Calls.


Description                                SPY      SPY- CC         PBP                    

TOTAL RETURN                     6.4%        7.7%         0.8%                      
Monthly Std. Dev.                     2.9%         2.0%            1.9%                     
 
I'm not entirely sure what explains these significantly different results, and care should be taken not to interpolate ten months results into the future. However, it could be worth a little time to think about what could cause these differences in performance.  Perhaps this is just CCI's brilliance (LOL).  More seriously, this different result in what on the surface sounds like similar conceptual approaches could illustrate the
  •  importance of call strike selection  and timing
  • importance of  active/passive management of  a covered call position,
  •  the impact of fees on an investment,
  •  difference in timings of distributions
  • etc
No matter the reason, this certainly seems like an example of a the benefits that can be gained by an investor taking the time to "do it themselves".

Monday, January 21, 2013

CCI's SPY/IWM Covered Calls Outperform Index in 2012!

The markets being closed today, provided a good opportunity to pull together performance for the Index Covered Call Portfolio. (ICC).   A summary of the activities performed to achieving these results is included at the bottom of this post and the conceptual trading plan for this portfolio is shown here

As shown below from initiation of the approach on Feb. 24, 2013 to Dec. 31, 2013 the covered call portfolio outperformed the underlying index!  At the same time the results are also less volatile.  Better results with less volatility means a better risk-adjusted rate of return.
Description                                SPY      SPY- CC                           IWM      IWM-CC
Cap Gain Return                       4.1%         4.1%                                1.9%          1.9%
Dividend Return                        2.3%         2.3%                                2.0%          2.0%
Option Return                              0%         1.3%                                  0%           2.4%
TOTAL RETURN                     6.4%        7.7%                                3.9%          6.4%


Monthly Std. Dev.                     2.9%         2.0%                                3.6%           1.9%
Worst Month                           -6.0%         -4.1%                              -6.6%         -2.1%  

Please note that all results are unaudited. Additionally, past performance is no guarantee of future results. That is certainly true for these results as different returns and volatility in the underlying indexes will generate different results. However, the case study does seem to support most of the premises for using covered calls such as
  • An investor using covered calls must remember that writing the covered call is just the first step and would be well served to have a plan/system to manage those calls. This portfolio suggests one approach that seemed to work in this case.
  • Performance for covered calls as compared to just holding the underlying index will likely be
    • better in flat and down markets
    • worse in up markets
  • Covered calls do dampen volatility. To the degree that is positive characteristic of a lower risk portfolio this strategy can be beneficial to an overall portfolio.


   * * * * * * *     Summary of Approach  * * * * * * *

The stock market had moved up handsomely in the first months of 2012. At that time, I decided to to select and follow an approach to managing covered calls. This article describes the actual results of writing monthly covered calls against the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) for the last ten months of 2012. The following describes the process used and corresponding results.

For SPY;
  • On February 24, 2012 the SPY was purchased at $136.75.
  • At the same time, a call expiring the next month (March) with a strike of $139 was sold against the position. The strike price was chosen because it has a delta value of around 33. This article will not attempt to describe option pricing theory and the the greeks. Suffice it to say this delta level was chose because it seemed to strike a good balance between
    • the probability of expiring above that price (about 33%) and having to deal with the potential calling away of the stock vs.
      - obtaining a material premium for the sale of the call
  • The option was held until
    • That option's delta went below 10 or over 90 or
    • 3 days prior to expiration.
  • When those conditions were met, the option was rolled to
    • the next expiration date with greater than 15 days until expiration. (usually the next month)
    • with a delta once again near 33.
  • Using these guidelines the process was redone every month. It triggered twelve rolls of the option over the next ten months. Not surprisingly,
    • four of those option rolls were done at a loss because the stock had moved well passed the strike price of the option
    • and eight were done for modest gains.
         That ratio of 4 of 12 times is what would have been expected with option having a delta of 33%

         The maximum monthly draw down of the covered call portfolio was 4.1% compared to 6.0% for       just holding the ETF. Lastly, while the data covers only 3 ½ quarters the covered call approach never  had a loosing quarter while holding the S&P had two loosing quarters.

For IWM;
  • On February 24, 2012 the IWM was purchased at $82.74. The March $85 call was sold at the same time. For the rest of the year the same process described above of rolling the option when the delta on that option got to 10 or 90 was followed.
  • This situation also triggered twelve rolls of the option over the next ten months. Those twelve option rolls generated a net credit of $201.45 or 2.43%.
  • This return was in addition to the 1.91% capital appreciation of the etf and 2.04% in dividends paid. Overall that means the returns for
    • Buy and Hold IWM was 3.95%
    • Buy and Hold with covered calls was 6.38%.
            In this case the covered calls turned a very modest return into something much better.
  • Additionally, just as shown above, the covered call portfolio was also less volatile
    • The monthly standard deviation of covered calls was just 1.7% vs 3.3 % if just holding the ETF. Almost half the volatility.
    • The maximum monthly draw down of the covered call portfolio was just 2.1% vs 6.6% for simply holding the ETF.