Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Positions - IBM - earnings comments

IBM earnings came out and exceeded expectations from almost every perspective.

More importantly they re-enforced (or upgraded) just about every key aspect of their plan to earn $20 by 2015. As discussed in the original post, there is something special about a company in an "uncertain" environment who is ready, willing and able to share a 4 year plan with investors and then deliver it like clock work. A doubling over the next 4 years still seems possible to me.

In the mid-term, IBM set expectations for 2011 at $13, and I assume analysts estimates will be around $14.5 for 2012. Pick you favorite multiple to get your twelve month target, but it seems there could be mid term upside from its current $154.

IBM remains a key position in my portfolio. With volatility general low, strong tech support at $145 it may be worth considering a leveraged play via $140 or $145 leaps on a market pullback.

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