Thursday, April 7, 2011

Cisco Trade ---Never Mind

Today's "efficient" market lesson....if CEO writes email then stock goes up 5

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I was expecting the earning announcement to be the catalyst to cause a bump in the stock price. However, it looks like Chamber's email has become that catalyst. I still expect the earning's announcement to be constructive. However, it seems like this email has somehow raised the short-term expectations. These higher expectations increase the downsize risk to the stock price, and the higher stock price lowers the upside reward

So.... I took the trade described in the original article off today. It made a 5.6% gain, but since it was just an initial, leveraged position not very much in absolute terms.

I suspect this rapid bump in price is temporary at it will pull back towards $17. Tempted to try a quick short trade but the fundamentals are too strong. I'll sit tight for now, but will be looking for the opportunity to put a trade on again at a lower level.

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