Thursday, September 22, 2011

Boeing - Crash Landing or Just Some Turbulence?

Always nice to see those "rational" markets plunge straight down in the past 24 hours.
Are we having fun yet???

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Boeing (BA) stock came crashing down about 5 % to $58  with the rest of the market today.   I assume largely because of concerns that if Asia slows, the demand for aircraft will slow down.   Or possible competition for new plane orders from Airbus is of concern.  Or.....who knows?  Conversely, Asian carriers and their governments likely see improving their air travel as a cornerstone of advancement and probably won't rush to cancel orders, and Boeing remains a very unique company in the world (i.e. not many plane makers left),

With the market hitting its alleged support at S&P 1120, I took the "bold" move of stepping into the blood bath by added my fourth and final lot of Boeing.  I decided to add this lot via a little option leverage.  Sold the Jan 13, $50 puts and bought the Jan 13 $65 calls to create a synthetic long  for nearly a $.50 credit.

Some scenarios
- In the most unlikely scenario,  the stock stays between $50 and $65 AND CCI just sits on this position for 15 months we will make 1% (a rate far better than cash)

- 15 months from now, Boeing has crashed down another 15% (below $50) and we will start loosing money.
- 15 months from now the current market action will have just been turbulence.  Boeing will be fulfilling their backlog for new planes, still be a company with one-of a kind abilities and trading well over $65.  In this case, since the portfolio only has $50 at risk,  profits will start to grow in a leveraged manner. 

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