Monday, September 19, 2011

Teva Time - Take Three

This weekend Teva $37.50 puts expired and the portfolio pocketed $1.37/share (3.6%).

The portfolio is still long and wrong two lots of Teva.   The initial article describing the rational for investment in Teva  here  focused on their long term plan to earn $7+/share by 2015.   I'm not aware of any updates from Teva to that plan, but it is possible some recent set backs in their pipeline could make that goal more difficult to achieve.  Conversely, that long term plan called for earnings of about $5 this year and that estimate is still supported by the analyst community.  Further I suspect Teva management will not give up on this plan easily or without a fight, and even earnings of $6/share would make the current price attractive.   With no reason not to believe the longer term plan will generate more earnings and the attractive short term valuations (i.e. forward pe 6.6) CCI continued to look toadd a  third lot of Teva to the portfolio. 

With the options play mentioned above not resulting in the stock being acquired, CCI simply bought a third lot of shares today.   Price net of commissions was at $37.75.  Conceptually adjusting for the premium received above this lot was in essence acquired at $36.38.   Hopefully the stock will hold the chart support in the low $37 and bounce back going into earnings.   Also, acquiring this lot of stock sets up the portfolio to consider tax loss selling of the first lot of shares bought earlier this year at some point in the future.

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