Wednesday, December 21, 2011

HPQ - Lets try that option trade again

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) fell back near $25 today.  The fall today is mainly in sympathy with Oracle's earnings miss.  Given some similarity in business and customer bases that type of stock movement could be logical.  Conversely,  there are a few differences in the existing stock prices of these two companies (i.e.  different p/e, very different p/b, recent history in meeting earnings forecast, different market view of the management teams,  etc).   Hence it is conceivable that any issues Oracle recently encountered could already be priced into HPQ stock, and in general this pull back in HPQ could be viewed as more of a buying opportunity.

  Of course, CCI is already long the stock, so risk management limits might not allow the addition of too much more to this losing position.  However, even though the stock moved down, the 1x2 ration spread just added to the portfolio actually made money (due to volatility decreases).  Hence, CCI took off the option position just recently established.  The trade netted a very modest $.19/share, but a .7% gain when the stock goes the wrong way is a gift that should be taken.   On any further fall in the stock or implied volatility, CCI will be looking to leg back into a 1x2 call spread by first acquiring $25 or $26 calls.   Hopefully end of year low volumes, tax selling, and will provide a good opportunity to do that. Stay tuned.

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