Wednesday, August 17, 2011

MMM - Time to trade this stock again

MMM is a dow jones index component and blue chip company.  It has been beaten down by the overall market drop, concerns about a slowing global economy and earnings announcement that "only" reaffirmed this years EPS estimate of $6.10 to $6:25.    CCI's opinion is that MMM's management likes to be conservative and under promise and over deliver, so I take this conservative guidance as business as usual for MMM.  CCI has successfully traded around this stock in the past as documented in this blog.

Given the stock has fallen from near $100 to $80, it seems like a good time to consider re-establishing a trading a position in this stock.   Given option volatility remains elevated, and we are comfortable owning the stock at this level, today I sold one lot of Aug $80 puts for $.55 after commission.  Two scenarios
  • If MMM stays over $80 this week, CCI will make .6 % in three days and reconsider entering a trade in the stock.  A very modest gain, but these days that small amount of income seems like a lot. If you believe standard option math theory this scenario is 2:1 more likely to happen than the next scenario. However,  an investor should not enter this trade if they are not comfortably owning this stock.
  • MMM falls below $80 this week.  CCI will own one lot at about $79.45 and look to trade around that position.  Likely by selling both a put to potentially acquire a second lot at a lower price and also sell a covered call against this lot.  These two option sales would generate a decent amount of income supported by the blue-chip nature of the company, 

No comments:

Post a Comment